The recent impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte has emerged as a pivotal factor in the 2025 Philippine midterm elections, with administration officials now engaged in a heated debate over its impact on their candidates’ performance. Campaign manager Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco has publicly blamed the impeachment proceedings for the administration’s disappointing election results, particularly in Mindanao, calling it a “self-inflicted wound” that cost their senatorial slate crucial votes in a region historically supportive of the Duterte family.
The Impeachment and Its Electoral Impact
Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco, who manages the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas slate, has directly attributed their candidates’ poor showing in Mindanao to the House’s impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Speaking on radio, Tiangco explained that voter sentiment in Mindanao shifted dramatically after the impeachment complaint was filed and passed by the House of Representatives.
“We know what happened in Mindanao. This all started when the impeachment was filed. Before the elections, we commissioned a survey, in November, December and we have tracked Mindanao,” Tiangco stated. His analysis suggests a clear cause-and-effect relationship: “If in the past, our candidates were getting votes from Mindanao, now no more. In the past, they chose candidates that they liked. Now, it changed. Their choice of candidates was whoever would not vote in favor of the impeachment.”
The impeachment of VP Duterte occurred on February 5, 2025, when more than 200 members of the House of Representatives, crossing party lines, supported the fourth impeachment complaint against her. This marked a historic moment as Duterte became the first vice president in Philippine history to be formally impeached by the House.
Political Strategy and Mindanao Voters
Tiangco revealed that the campaign team had identified problems in Mindanao early on, which influenced their strategic decisions. “I knew there was a problem in Mindanao. That’s why in the campaign, I deflected questions on whether we would have a rally in Mindanao because we knew there was a problem. We concentrated on areas where we could get votes,” he explained. Instead of campaigning as a unified group in Mindanao, they allowed candidates to campaign individually, hoping voters might include at least some administration candidates alongside the opposition’s “Duter10” slate.
The campaign manager also claimed that some pro-administration local officials in Mindanao couldn’t publicly show support for fear of losing votes among pro-Duterte constituents. He further alleged that some congressmen were pressured to sign the impeachment complaint against Duterte with threats of budget cuts to their districts.
Conflicting Claims on Electoral Impact
Not all administration officials share Tiangco’s assessment of the impeachment’s impact. House Assistant Majority Leader and Tingog Party-list Rep. Jude Acidre directly challenged Tiangco’s claims, presenting contradictory evidence regarding congressional races.
“Thirty-six out of the 44 Mindanao congressmen who supported the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte won or gained fresh mandates during the May 12 mid-term elections,” Acidre stated, pointing to an impressive 81.81 percent win rate among pro-impeachment solons from Mindanao. Nationally, the numbers were even more striking: “100 out of 115 House members from various districts who signed or verified the impeachment complaint against the controversial Duterte won,” representing an 86.96 percent win rate.
Deputy Speaker David “Jay-Jay” Suarez also disagreed with Tiangco’s assessment, saying, “While I do respect the opinions of Toby Tiangco with regards to the matter, although I do not subscribe to it, but syempre bilang isang campaign manager siguro nakikita niya yung terrain”. Suarez emphatically denied Tiangco’s allegation that some congressmen signed the impeachment in exchange for budget considerations: “There’s no truth to that allegation… No one was coerced, no one was…asked to sign. Everybody signed the impeachment based on their own volition.”
Public Opinion on the Impeachment
A Pulse Asia survey conducted in February 2025 revealed significant opposition to VP Duterte’s impeachment among voters. The poll found that 45% of registered voters opposed the impeachment, while only 26% supported it, with 23% undecided and 7% claiming insufficient knowledge.
Regional breakdowns showed striking disparities: in Mindanao, 88% opposed impeachment with only 4% supporting it, while Metro Manila had the highest support rate at 45%. The survey also revealed skepticism about the Senate’s ability to conduct a fair trial, with 35% believing the Senate would not be fair, 33% undecided, and only 21% believing the Senate would conduct a fair process.
The Path Forward: Senate Trial and Political Implications
The impeachment case against VP Duterte is scheduled to proceed to the Senate when session resumes in June. Senate President Francis Escudero has confirmed that the trial is set to continue on July 3 unless the Supreme Court intervenes with a temporary restraining order. Escudero expressed confidence that senators would vote based on evidence rather than political alliances: “In my 15 years in the Senate, decisions are not based on mere formal, natural alliances. Even my election as Senate President crossed party lines.”
Election lawyer Romulo Macalintal has suggested the Senate might dismiss the impeachment case “for lack of jurisdiction,” noting that at least 16 senators would be needed to convict Duterte, but she would only need eight votes in her favor to defeat the impeachment.
Prosecution Team and Administration Stance
The prosecution team for the impeachment trial has been bolstered by the addition of former senator Leila de Lima and human rights lawyer Chel Diokno. House Assistant Majority Leader Zia Alonto Adiong praised their inclusion, stating, “With the addition of incoming Rep[resentatives] De Lima and Diokno, we see the convergence of moral clarity and legal precision in our pursuit of conviction.”
Meanwhile, Malacañang has maintained that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will not interfere in the impeachment process. Palace Press Officer Claire Castro stated, “The President will not interfere in whatever happens there. Let’s just see who should be held accountable, who should be acquitted. We are all for the rule of law.” She emphasized that the President expects senators to “fulfill their obligation – not just to one person, but to all Filipinos.”
Charges Against the Vice President
The impeachment complaint against VP Duterte includes serious allegations: culpable violation of the Constitution, bribery, graft and corruption, betrayal of public trust, and other high crimes. Specific accusations include misuse of confidential funds from her office and the Department of Education (totaling P612.5 million), an alleged conspiracy to assassinate President Marcos, First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and Speaker Martin Romualdez, unexplained wealth, failure to disclose assets, and involvement in extrajudicial killings, destabilization, insurrection, and public disorder.
In response, Duterte has filed a petition with the Supreme Court seeking a temporary restraining order or writ of preliminary injunction against the proceedings. Despite the legal challenges, the Vice President has publicly stated that she is prepared for whatever outcome emerges from the Senate trial.
Conclusion
The impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte represents a significant political gamble for the Marcos administration, with contradictory evidence about its electoral impact. While Tiangco’s claims about Mindanao voters rejecting administration candidates have some support in senatorial election results, the high success rate of pro-impeachment House members suggests a more nuanced political reality.
As the Senate prepares for the historic impeachment trial in July, both political camps are positioning themselves for what promises to be a pivotal moment in Philippine politics, with implications that will likely shape the remainder of President Marcos’s term and the political landscape leading into the next presidential election.
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